First Mover: Stimulus Seen (for Bitcoin) Since Moderna Won't Save Spirits from Third Wave

ALSO: Citi analyst sees bitcoin at $300K by end of next year

November 16, 2020 Sponsored By: By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Bradley Keoun If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Bitcoin (BTC) +2.4% $16,346 Ether (ETH)  +1.4% $455 (Price data as of Nov. 16 @11:34 UTC) TODAY: Price Point: Bitcoin back above $16K as Wall Street gets early jolt from Moderna vaccine news.  Market Moves: A third wave of the coronavirus could dent consumer confidence during the crucial holiday shopping season, potentially necessitating more economic stimulus that could bolster's bitcoin use as an inflation hedge. Bitcoin Watch: The $17.5 trillion pile of negative-yielding bonds around the world looks bullish, cutting against technical indicators suggesting market fatigue, CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole writes.  What's Hot: SEC's Clayton to step down at end of year; Citi analyst sees bitcoin at $300K by end of next year; Bitcoin Cash undergoes hard fork; Galaxy Digital pursues acquisitions; inflation quickens in Nigeria. Price Point Bitcoin was higher, climbing back above $16,000 on Monday after dipping below the mark over the weekend.    "Should we trade back above $16,490, then we expect to see the bulls take the market by the horns and drive prices to a $17,000 handle," Matt Blom, head of sales and trading at the cryptocurrency financial firm Diginex, told clients in an email. "If we remain capped by $16,490. then we look for another period of consolidation."   In traditional markets, European and Asian shares rose and U.S. futures pointed to a higher open as a vaccine from Moderna was shown to be 95% effective in a preliminary analysis. Gold strengthened 0.2% to $1,892 an ounce.  Market Moves Progress in developing a vaccine may not come soon enough to avoid a third wave of the coronavirus that dents consumer spirits during the crucial holiday shopping season –along with confidence in an economic recovery.    That might mean more pain for retailers, already ailing from the lockdowns earlier this year, while reinforcing the need for new multi-trillion-dollar spending packages to provide aid to businesses and households. The dynamic could bolster demand for bitcoin, seen by a growing number of investors in both digital-asset and traditional markets as a hedge against inflation.    "All indications are that a package will still be required to prop the U.S. economy up," Simon Peters, an analyst for the cryptocurrency-inclusive trading platform eToro. "With bitcoin increasingly cementing its status as an effective inflation hedge and huge amounts of liquidity set to be pumped into Main Street U.S.A., that could be another catalyst to finally take the world's most popular cryptoasset past $17,500."   Although markets were buoyed last week by news of success in developing a vaccine, broad distribution of the inoculations isn't expected for several months. Predictions by White House coronavirus advisor Anthony Fauci that cases would tick up with the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere – when people spend more time indoors – appear to be playing out.   According to the Covid Tracking Project, U.S. hospitalizations have surged to a record of about 70,000, with daily deaths now around 1,100, the highest since May.   "With the numbers worsening by day, we expect all measures of consumers' sentiment to deteriorate over the next couple months, at least," Pantheon Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson wrote in a report.   A third wave of the coronavirus has pushed up U.S. deaths to levels not seen since May. (Covid Tracking Project)   A report late last week from the University of Michigan showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell this month to a reading of 77, well below economists' forecast for an 82.   The decline was driven by falling economic expectations among President Donald Trump's Republican party members, following projections that he lost his reelection bid, according to the forecaster Pantheon.   But the real damper on consumer confidence could come from the resurgence in coronavirus cases around the world. Japan faces mounting pressure to reimpose a state of emergency and South Korea is warning that it's at a "critical crossroads," according to Reuters.   The U.S. states of Michigan and Wisconsin on Sunday imposed new restrictions on public gatherings, including halting indoor restaurant service, the news service reported.   "Significant and in our opinion under-appreciated economic damage resulting from this latest swell is possible without a meaningful fiscal relief package from Congress," the brokerage firm Raymond James wrote in a report.   Projected President-elect Joe Biden is expected to speak Monday to outline a strategy for economic recovery. According to Bloomberg News, the plan is expected to rely heavily on a campaign proposal for $2 trillion of government spending, including provisions for clean energy, infrasturcture and jobs stimulus.   "The U.S. economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending, and if surging Covid-19 cases dent confidence significantly going into the holiday season, it could have ramifications for the pace of economic recovery from the pandemic," eToro's Peters wrote.  - Bradley Keoun Chart superimposing retail sales over consumer confidence shows how closely the measures track (Pantheon)  SPONSORED BY NBA TOP SHOT NBA Top Shot is taking blockchain to the next level. The first of its kind, NBA Top Shot is a basketball platform for fans to collect Moments – jaw-dropping highlights from the greatest players in the NBA –  all fully-licensed and developed in close collaboration with the NBA and NBPA. Each collectible Moment offers a snapshot-in-time for your favorite teams and players, like a trading card for the 21st century. Every Moment has a unique edition number and circulating count, verifying its rarity. They are made in limited quantities, meaning once they're all collected from packs, fans have to negotiate with fellow collectors to snag the Moments they covet. It's a proof-case that fan engagement can be super-charged through true ownership and the ability to participate in a sports economy. Interactive challenges create daily actions for fans to take where they can earn limited-edition prizes for collecting certain Moments. Nothing like a rare reward that can't be bought. The natural benefit of blockchain means these Moments are not only truly owned by users, but that they can also do more than a simple trading card. NBA Top Shot will soon launch a mobile game in which the collectibles are essential to winning in a quick-play environment, creating even more ways for fans to engage.  NBA Top Shot is now in Open Beta, so anyone can join. Check it out to get a feel for the collector experience and join the Discord channel to enter a vibrant, vocal community. Want to learn more about how this product came to be? Blockchain still confusing? Reach out to me at caty@dapperlabs.com. We're happy to help.  Bitcoin Watch Bitcoin daily chart indicators show signs of temporary bull fatigue (TradingView) Bitcoin is on the offensive, having rallied for six straight weeks. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above $16,200, having consistently found demand below $16,000 over the weekend.    The long-term bullish case has probably strengthened with the global stockpile of negative-yielding bonds hitting a fresh record high of $17.5 trillion this month. The number has more than doubled in the past eight months.   The sharp rise is the result of deep interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks, as well as massive liquidity-boosting bond purchases to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Analysts expect the towering stockpile of bonds yielding negative returns to boost demand for inflation-resistant assets such as bitcoin.   "The more central banks print money and push bond yields lower to contend with ongoing stress in the global economy, the more compelling the economics around bitcoin become," Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Digital, told CoinDesk over Telegram.   In the short-run, the cryptocurrency may face some selling pressure, as the daily chart indicators are flashing signs of bull fatigue. The MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge trend strength and trend changes, has charted lower highs, contradicting higher highs on price. Such bearish divergences are often followed by price pullbacks.    The immediate support is seen at $15,715 (weekend low) followed by the psychological level of $15,000. Meanwhile, resistance is seen directly at $20,000. - Omkar Godbole   Read More: Record Levels of Negative-Yielding Debt Strengthen Case for Bitcoin What's Hot Bitcoin Cash splits into two new blockchains, again (CoinDesk)    Citi analyst predicts bitcoin could pass $300K by December 2021 (CoinDesk)   Belarus bank to offer bitcoin purchases, with litecoin and ether coming soon (CoinDesk)   Novogratz's Galaxy Digital makes twin acquisitions in bid to strengthen institutional appeal (CoinDesk)     Bank of England deputy governor says it was not his job  "to protect bank business models" from the impact of digital currencies (Reuters)   Fidelity's crypto arm responds to 6 common bitcoin criticisms (CoinDesk)    Blockchain voting as a solution to democratic election woes are not the solution says MIT in its latest report examining blockchain e-voting (CoinDesk) Analogs The latest on the economy and traditional finance SEC Chair Jay Clayton, who led regulatory pushback against bitcoin ETF, plans to step down at the end of the year (SEC)     U.S. bank-consolidation race is on as Pittsburgh-based PNC agrees to buy U.S. unit of Spain's BBVA for $11.6B (MarketWatch)   Nigerian inflation rate quickens to 14.2% from 13.7% a month ago, due to surging food costs caused by border closures, dollar restrictions and banditry attacks (Bloomberg)    Australia's stock exchange stopped trade 20 minutes after opening on Monday, due to market-data issues; trading expected to resume Tuesday (Reuters)   Korean Air Lines said Monday it would purchase $1.6B stake in ailing and indebted Asiana Airlines, creating world's 15th largest carrier (Reuters) SPONSORED BY POLICY 4.0 Policy 4.0 is a research and advisory working on policy strategy for the future of money and data. Our team of blockchain engineers, financial and policy experts have spent some months reverse engineering China's digital yuan. This 4-part research series will be unveiled on November 18 with CoinDesk at 15:00 -16:30 p.m. UTC. The event comprises an address from the Governor of the Bahamas Central Bank, perspectives from the IMF, David Birch and Pindar Wong.   Register here Webinar: How to Value Ethereum   In the second episode of the live webinar series How to Value Ethereum, CoinDesk Research unpacks the many quirks of Total Value Locked – the most popular metric for measuring decentralized finance growth.   Sign up for How to Value Ethereum episode 2 on Nov. 17.   Tweet of the Day Goodbye, DAI and bitcoin SV. Hello, kyber and cosmos.   A swelling in volume in the crypto markets over the third quarter has changed the list of noteworthy digital assets beyond bitcoin and ether that matter most to traders and investors. That change is reflected in the CoinDesk 20.    In the latest revision, five assets were replaced by crypto assets that saw volume surges outpacing even the double-digit gains posted in market volume as a whole.    The new assets are algorand (ALGO), cosmos (ATOM), cardano (ADA), kyber (KNC) and omisego (OMG). On average, incumbent CoinDesk 20 asset volume increased by 22% from Q2 to Q3. However, these crypto assets' trusted market volume increased by much more.   These five new crypto assets replaced incumbent assets that are well-known to crypto investors. Read more about how they displaced incumbents bitcoin sv, dai, zcash, monero and dash on CoinDesk 20's latest update. Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. 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