Bitcoin Shows No Signs of Panic Even as Worst Case Scenario Looms

The latest moves in crypto markets, in context

February 28, 2022

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Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning:

Market Moves: Bitcoin's price was holding steady, after the West announced stricter sanctions against Russia and its central bank over the weekend.
Featured stories: The bitcoin market shows no signs of panic even as Goldman predicts high inflation and more Fed rate hikes.

And check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and Lawrence Lewitinn at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today's show will feature guests:

Kapil Rathi, co-founder and CEO, CrossTower
Alona Shevchenko, founder, Ukraine DAO

Today's newsletter was edited by Omkar Godbole and produced by Bradley Keoun.

Market Moves

By Omkar Godbole

Bitcoin posted moderate gains early Monday while traditional risk assets tanked on concerns that the West's stricter punitive sanctions on Russia will push the global economy into stagflation – a situation in which an economy experiences a simultaneous increase in price pressures and stagnation in growth.

The top cryptocurrency moved above $38,000, partially erasing Sunday's 3% drop. Meanwhile, the Asian and European stocks tanked and the Dow futures fell 800 points before regaining some poise.

The Russian ruble crashed 40% in Moscow, hitting a record low of 118 per U.S. dollar. The greenback gained ground across the board, with the money market showing signs of dollar funding stress.

The leading cryptocurrency remained resilient, perhaps having priced the escalation over the weekend. Crypto markets are open 24/7, contrary to traditional markets, which are available to trade five days a week.

Also read: Ruble-Denominated Bitcoin Volumes Surges to 9-Month High

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Crypto Prices

Bitcoin (BTC)

See the latest price here

Ether (ETH)

See the latest price here

The following are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 digital assets over the past 24 hours:

Biggest Gainers:

Asset	Ticker	Returns	Sector
Filecoin	FIL	+1.1%	Computing
Solana	SOL	+0.1%	Smart Contract Platform

Biggest Losers:

Asset	Ticker	Returns	Sector
Polkadot	DOT	−8.1%	Smart Contract Platform
Ethereum	ETH	−6.4%	Smart Contract Platform
Cosmos	ATOM	−6.3%	Smart Contract Platform

Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk 20 is a ranking of the largest digital assets by volume on trusted exchanges.

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Latest Headlines

Bitcoin shows no signs of panic

By Omkar Godbole

The worst-case scenario of high inflation and low growth while central banks prioritize consumer-price stability over economic activity and asset-price stability is increasingly looking likely.

Per James Pethokoukis, a columnist and an economic policy analyst, strategists at Goldman Sachs now expect four additional rates hikes in 2023 in addition to seven rate hikes this year. The investment banking giant previously anticipated three hikes next year.

However, the bitcoin market is showing no signs of panic yet, as evident from the blockchain data and derivatives market activity.

Data provided by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode show that the seven-day average of the number of coins held on centralized exchanges hovers near multi-year lows reached in the final quarter of 2021. That's a sign of solid holding sentiment.

Bitcoin's exchange balance. (Chart by Glassnode)

Investors typically move their coins to exchanges when intending to liquidate their holdings.

The put-call skews show demand for put options or downside protection has slightly weakened despite the escalation of the crisis over the weekend. According to data provided by the crypto derivatives research firm Skew, the one-week put-call skew stood at 12% at press time versus 18% on Thursday.

Put-call skews measure the cost of puts or bearish bets relative to calls or bullish bets.

The crypto community doesn't seem worried about prospects of central banks resorting to faster rate hikes to avoid stagflation. Perhaps, investors are anticipating dovish talk from major central banks, given the money markets are exhibiting signs of stress in the dollar funding markets.

Early today, the gap between the one-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and Fed rates for one-month contracts widened the most since March 2020, according to Bloomberg. The widening of the spread represents tighter liquidity for the dollar, the global reserve currency.

Focus on the bitcoin-gold ratio

The bitcoin-gold ratio traded at under the 21-month exponential moving average support of 20.50 at press time. Acceptance under the average may prove costly for bitcoin, as seen in the past.

Bitcoin-gold ratio's monthly chart (Source: TradingView)

The OGs of NFTs get animated with the biggest stars from around the world in this entertaining new series from CoinDesk TV. Tune in Tuesdays in February at 4 p.m. ET.

ICYMI

In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:

Cryptocurrency Is an Unlikely Workaround for US Sanctions Against Russia, Crypto Markets Rebound After Biden Speech

"First Mover" hosts speak to cryptocurrency strategist and former CIA analyst Yaya Jata Fanusie for his insights into the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the role of crypto in this geopolitical crisis. Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo weighs in on the crypto regulation turf war in the U.S. Strips Finance Founder and CEO Ming Wu provides his market analysis as cryptocurrencies are seeing a strong rebound following Biden's speech yesterday. Plus, a highlight from CoinDesk Tax Week coverage.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.