Bitcoin hit one hundred thousand United States dollars well in advance of the new year. 100K is quite the psychological milestone, and the crypto community exulted in the achievement. There were lots of self-congratulations and more than a few, "I told you So's." Bitcoin didn't just touch $100K, it moved decidedly through it touching $104K before wicking down past $91K. Some were scared, but many pointed out that in 2017 there was a similar Darth Maul candle when Bitcoin hit $10k for the first time.
There were several catalysts one could point to in order to explain the speed with which $100K happened. The most obvious ones are the Trump administration's procession of pro-crypto nominations. A couple weeks ago, Trump picked Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager supportive of creating a strategic national crypto stockpile, for Treasury Secretary. Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, which handles a majority of Tether's U.S. sovereign bonds, was chosen for Commerce Secretary. This week, he picked pro-crypto Paul Atkins as SEC chair. Since 2017, Atkins has co-chaired the Digital Chamber's Token Alliance, working on policy issues related to the digital assets sector. A day after the pick was announced, Bitcoin made its $100K run.
My favorite comment about the Trump administration's picks came from Noelle Acheson on the great Bits + Bips podcast this week. Commenting on the Trump admin's picks compared to the previous administration's, Acheson said, "These do feel like grown up choices."
Another tailwind for Bitcoin was the fact that retail is returning to crypto. The past couple of weeks have seen a large number of so-called 'dino coins' pump hundreds of percent each. A dino coin is a coin from a previous cycle that was popular, but has since fallen out of favor, for example XRP. XRP exemplified the rise of the dinos by flipping Solana by market cap for the number 4 spot, and briefly taking the number three spot from Tether.
I think this cycle you will have two kinds of retail entering the market, one of which will buy Bitcoin. You'll have the usual retail plowing into altcoins because, "it's too late to make money on Bitcoin." These are XRP and ADA holders of last cycle reentering the market now and pumping the old coins. But unlike previous cycles, I think richer and older retail (think boomer parents of millennials) will enter the market now that Bitcoin has been sanctified by the likes of Blackrock. They have money, but they won't wade out on the risk curve past Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum.
Speaking of Ethereum, it was a good week for the number one non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Ethereum ETF inflows surpassed BTC ETF inflows several days this week. Inflows appear to be picking up as well. Another good sign was how well Ethereum held up during the Bitcoin flush. ETH has performed better than BTC and SOL during this time.
With ETH showing signs of strength, you'd expect to see bluechip NFTs, which are predominantly ETH-based, doing well. You are. The Top NFT collections all saw their floor prices increase over a seven day period. You'd also expect Ethereum L2s to do well, and they are. I think Base is currently the best Ethereum L2. They've reassured the market a token isn't incoming, a welcome Ethereum L1-aligned strategy. The AI agent meta on Base via Virtuals, is the strongest on any chain. Last but not least, Coinbase hasn't even really started trying to push their customers onto Base yet.
Finally, I'll leave you with a question we pondered on Token Narratives this week. What phase of the market cycle are we in? It's good to keep this in mind as things heat up.
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