Where Are We in the Cycle? — Week in Review

Read all of the biggest stories of the week.͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ 

Where are we in the cycle? Conflict in the Middle East sent Bitcoin tumbling alongside equities, while gold and oil rallied. As I noted at the end of April, Bitcoin still isn't the immediate risk-off hedge or safe haven that gold is. However, over longer time frames, it serves as a hedge against broader systemic risks like monetary debasement and capital controls. Bitcoin fell as much as 5% over the past two days, driven largely by reports and rumors of escalating conflict between Israel and Iran—culminating in Israeli strikes within Iran. I agree with those who believe markets have yet to fully price in the risk of a broader war. On this week's episode of Token Narratives, I said that if a general war breaks out, expect risk assets like Bitcoin and crypto to dump further. Sponsored by GameGram Trading feels like a casino? Skip the stress—try the real one. Crypto casino fun. #1 PvP Crypto Casino—GameGram is crypto-only with anonymous deposits. Challenge real opponents in Rock Paper Scissors PvP, then spin roulette, blackjack & slots powered by BTC and top coins. VPN-friendly, lightning withdrawals, honest promos: 50% rakeback or 30% real cashback at signup—no wagering nonsense. PLAY NOW While I am now mostly focused on the developing Israel-Iran conflict, for most of the week as I read through headlines, I kept asking myself: "Where are we in the cycle?" I encourage you to ask the same as you peruse the following: 1. Buy more Bitcoin. 2. Bitcoin buying SPAC. 3. Saylor on Peterson podcast. 4. Corporate Bitcoin buying strategy, except buying a shitcoin. 5. This is not just happening in crypto. I think we are in the later stages of this bull cycle—where expectations detach from reality and things get a bit crazy. If we consult the Wall Street Cheat Sheet, I'd place us somewhere between Belief and Thrill. Depending on your trading activity and investment time horizon, the exact point in the cycle may not matter beyond personal curiosity. But for those with a shorter-term focus, having a rough idea of the cycle's phase can be extremely valuable. I bet that the corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy will be the catalyst that propels markets into full-blown euphoria, attracting more capital into increasingly risky vehicles. This will ultimately be the biggest contributor to the market's undoing. It's probably worthwhile to use a tool to monitor Bitcoin treasury activity. Nic Carter posted on X that, "like GBTC back in the day, the entire game now - the whole thing - is figuring out how much more BTC these access vehicles will scoop up, and when they will blow up and spit it all back out again." He's not alone in seeing parallels between GBTC and the current Saylor-led Bitcoin treasury strategy. In the altcoin world, Hyperliquid's HYPE token continues to be the darling of CT (Crypto Twitter). As a bagholder, I'm pleased with its performance—and reassured by bullish long-term takes from crypto luminaries like Cobie. Still, the excessive, circular hype is exhausting. I expect outlandish questions and/or predictions like this Arthur Hayes X post to increase as the market approaches a top. I also expect this faux pas by Andrew Tate, who didn't realize a decentralized exchange allows anyone to see his negative PNL, to be repeated a lot more as things get sillier. Speaking of silly, how about some altcoin hopium? Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst for  Bloomberg, posted some high-grade hopium about a, "potential Alt Coin ETF Summer with Solana likely leading the way." The odds look good for a handful of spot crypto ETF approvals. Unlike with the spot Ethereum ETFs, I believe a Solana and XRP ETF would have a meaningful impact on the prices of SOL and XRP.  Finally, this is your regular reminder that being in crypto comes with increased risk of wrench attacks. 2025 is only half done, but is getting close to passing last year's total. -David Sencil News Bitcoin Plummets Below $104K as Tehran Airstrikes Send Shockwaves Through Markets Bitcoin dipped below $104,000 on Wednesday, reaching an intraday low of $103,362 following reports of airstrikes… read more.   Editor's comment: As discussed in this week's episode of Token Narratives (Episode 56), the market hasn't priced in escalation.   Bitcoin Liquidations Surge to $1.16 Billion; Economist Claims BTC Is 15% Lower vs. Gold Economist Peter Schiff has renewed his criticism of bitcoin, questioning its status as "digital gold" after the cryptocurrency… read more.   Editor's comment: Gold acted as a safe haven immediately after the news of Israel's attacks on Iran. Bitcoin isn't yet that visceral flight to safety, at least in the short term.   Robert Kiyosaki Declares Civil War Has Begun—Warns of Violent Summer Robert Kiyosaki declares civil war has begun, sounding the alarm on economic collapse and urging a flight to bitcoin… read more.   Editor's comment: If you haven't checked out the excellent book The Fourth Turning, you definitely should.   Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin Hits No-Sell Zone Above $130K-$150K Bitwise's CEO makes a bold prediction: bitcoin holders will stop selling once the crypto hits the $130K-$150K range… read more.   Editor's comment: Counterintuitively, Horsley argues that once the price of Bitcoin clears $130K - $150K, buyers will be less likely to sell.   ECB Confirms Gold Dethroned the Euro as the Second Reserve Asset A recent report by the ECB confirms that gold, following a significant rally in 2024, has become the second-largest asset… read more.   Editor's comment: You're telling me that the BRICS, made up of countries that flat-out hate each other, is going to have a better chance than the Euro did at becoming the global reserve asset? Read more news @2025  Saint Bitts, LLC 858 Zenway Blvd, P.O. Box 1830, Frigate Bay, Saint Kitts and Nevis  This email was sent to To unsubscribe or modify your subscriptions, please click here. Have feedback for us? Send it here.