This week Bitcoin briefly touched $126,000, an all-time high (ATH), despite the continuing U.S. government shutdown. BNB, the Binance token, muscled past XRP and (briefly) USDT to reach a $1,350 ATH. The other alts declined during the week, with ETH and SOL down roughly 3.6% and 5% respectively since last Friday. Outside of crypto, gold made yet another ATH, this time surging beyond $4,050 while silver, the Litecoin of precious metals if you will, hit a record high $61. The easily digestible narrative is that with gold/silver ripping, equities like the S&P hovering around ATHs, and the U.S. dollar in the toilet, there is a strong dollar debasement trade. On this great Bits + Pips podcast Ram Ahluwalia shows that of course nothing is that simple. USDJPY has increased to 152.9 as of writing this, and the DKY seems to have bottomed. You'd also expect the dollar to decline versus oil, but crude is hanging out in the mid 60s. As Graham said in this week's episode of Token Narratives, perhaps the fiat debasement trade is strong, but not the dollar one. With multiple markets sitting at all-time highs, market participants often feel very bullish (price discovery imminent) or very bearish (we've topped). On balance it does seem even the bearish economic data doesn't preclude severe bullishness in the short term, especially when you have indications that every government is going to run it hot. For example, Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, pledges to, "jolt the economy with aggressive government spending." |
On to notable crypto news: the Bitcoin Core v. Bitcoin Knots debate has heated up, but not in a positive way. First, for those unfamiliar with the conflict, Aaron van Wirdum wrote an excellent overview. This week people sympathetic with Knots began to attack Gloria Zhao, claiming she was a nepotistic hire to Bitcoin Core. If true, it'd be bad, but the evidence seems flimsy at best, cringe drivel at worst. Things are getting divisive enough that CT (Crypto Twitter) curmudgeon and perpetual provocateur Pledittor began cautioning descalation. That really caught my attention. As did this video of Bitcoin's number one cheerleader Michael Saylor seemingly moderating his view on the "there is no second best" rhetoric. The video begins with Saylor saying, "People are gonna start to see that there's a place for both Bitcoin and other crypto assets." It sounds like there most definitely is a second best now! Last week, I wrote about Aster, a perp DEX that kicked off the perp DEX frenzy. The furor has reduced to a murmur, perhaps because Aster, a Binance-backed project, spawned a Binance Smart Chain memecoin season. "Season" is a stretch, the speculating started and completely died in less than a week. These narratives, metas, or seasons are so short lived now. As discussed in Token Narratives, they seem to follow a pattern:
1. News of a project that makes a lot of money or enriches a lot of people, drops Projects that are tangentially related begin to run. This usually seems to be alternative projects, like with perp DEXs (Hyperliquid alts), launch pads (Pump.fun alts), or DATs (Strategy alts). However, it could just be things within the ecosystem, like the memecoins on the Binance chain running after Aster did well. Selling happens as soon as people start posting FOMO-inducing wins on CT. As a test of this pattern, perhaps the news of Polymarket getting a $2 billion investment from NYSE owners, making Shayne Coplan the youngest self-made billionaire will kick off a prediction market meta for the next week or so? -David Sencil |
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Report: DOJ and Roger Ver Strike Deferred-Prosecution Agreement Roger Ver, a prominent cryptocurrency investor, has reportedly reached a tentative agreement with the U.S. Justice… read more. Editor's comment: No matter how you feel about Ver, it's good for the crypto industry, and for the U.S., to settle this matter. It will only increase confidence that the U.S. is a great place for crypto. Billionaire Investor Ray Dalio Pinpoints Bitcoin's Main Vulnerability: Code Dalio, who is famous for founding Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds, explained that while.… read more. Editor's comment: Dalio's concerns are apropos to the current division that threatens to split the Bitcoin community. India Confronts Stablecoin Shifts as Finance Minister Outlines Global Challenges India is seizing the global spotlight as stablecoins and digital finance shake the foundations of traditional money… read more. Editor's comment: Every non-American nation will have to wrestle with how to handle the coming deluge of dollar denominated stablecoins. Robert Kiyosaki Wants to Vomit as Buffett Words Signal Crash Ahead, Doubles Down on Bitcoin Robert Kiyosaki is warning investors that Warren Buffett's unexpected turn to gold and silver signals collapsing markets… read more. Editor's comment: Kiyosaki slots nicely into the currently popular dollar debasement trade. Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Extend Inflow Streak to 8 Days Bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) notched their eighth consecutive day of inflows, bringing in… read more. Editor's comment: As Eric Balchunas told me at Token2049 Dubai, the crypto industry really needs to take ETFs seriously. |
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