Uptober Intact Despite Government Shutdown — Week in Review

Read all of the biggest stories of the week.͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ 

Uptober intact despite government shutdown Bitcoin climbed from below $110K to above $120K by Thursday, banishing bears from CT (Crypto Twitter) in the process. This happened despite a looming U.S. government shutdown materializing on Wednesday, October 1. Once again, the timeline is filled with bullposting, even one from the venerable Cobie (the entire post consists of the image shown below): I've been a fairly unwavering bull, but it's always important to continually update your information. This post by RookieXBT does a good job of double-checking the current market setup. The whole post is worth reading, but here is the most relevant part for my purposes: - Dollar Index (DXY) at 15 year support - Rate cut cycle (impossible to price in beyond initial reaction) into a period of economic expansion driven by AI - M2 up and to the right as always - S&P 500 up 12% on the year trading at an ATH; full V-reverse and then some after being down as much as 22% on the year post tariff uncertainty  - GOLD did nothing for 15 years then decides to go up 40% in 2025 - Trillions of dollars being invested into infrastructure expansion Another strong bull post this week featured Ray Dalio speaking constructively about Bitcoin. His argument was infinitely more credible because he was measured in his praise while also pointing out the risks and unknowns.   The fact that we're still in a bull market hasn't changed, but it does seem likely that the way to make money from this bull market has changed. We've touched on this subject several times on Token Narratives this year. Legendary CT Duck, DonAlt posted this week:    The market has changed in the last couple years Back in the day hyper active trade management was a good way to gain an edge Now it feels like the opposite is true and conviction is much more important as the market chops highly active traders to death   Ryan Watkins, formerly of Messari, agreed with the duck:   Last cycle, the biggest source of edge was being short-term while everyone else bet on supercycle. Today it increasingly pays to do the opposite, as crypto's best opportunities now require longer payoff horizons that few are willing to see through due to myopia and PTSD.   Several reasons are often cited to explain this shift in profitable trading strategies. First, the marginal buyers of digital assets are now institutions. They're mostly buying Bitcoin, some Ethereum, and smaller amounts of Solana, and they trade on longer timescales than your average Adderall-riddled crypto degen. Second, crypto might actually be maturing as an industry, with "investors" demanding projects not only generate revenue, but distribute it to token holders.   I thought Matt Huang's wonderful post about the evolution of crypto as observed through network revenue captures how over time the trend has been towards having blockchains do something, and do it profitably. This post looks at crypto's brief history through the lens of a pattern seen in other industries: A CapEx bubble, bust, and subsequent buildout. By the poster's estimation, we are entering the final phase.   Speaking of CapEx, nothing is more CapEx intensive and risky than building out things in physical space. It's why I respect Bitcoin miners so much. It's also why I love projects like DoubleZero which launched their mainnet and token. They also released this cool dashboard to get live metrics, data that simply isn't available about the internet.   A crypto week in review wouldn't be complete without mentioning stablecoins. First, Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams and I both suffered the indignity of tradfi's brazen greed when swapping between currencies. Adams concluded that this is yet another reason why tradfi will be replaced.   Next, I had a short interview with Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, during which he convinced me that if and when US sovereign bond yields fall, it will hurt Tether's competition much more than it will Tether. I could imagine Tether wanting rates to fall in order to thin out all of the stablecoins popping up like weeds.    Lagarde and the ECB are scared of the competition stablecoins, which are almost entirely U.S. dollar denominated, present to the Euro. The European Systemic Risk Board has recommended a ban on multi-issuance stablecoins. The always great Nic Carter had a piece on what our stablecoin future will look like. He thinks the duopoly of Tether/USDC will be replaced into a kaleidoscope of stablecoins offering a dizzying array of features to fit every niche. This contractors with what others think will be a winner-takes-most situation.   Lastly, while CT is the beating heart of crypto, it's important to remember that it's full of poor LARPers faking wealth and success.  -David Sencil News Bitcoin Shoots up as US Government Shuts Down, and Private Sector Employment Falls The U.S. Federal government officially shut down at midnight Wednesday after Congress failed to pass a… read more.   Editor's comment: I don't believe Bitcoin is doing well due to being a safe haven asset.    ZEC, XMR, DASH Lead Privacy Coin Rally as Bitcoin Reaches $120K Zcash, with a gain of more than 130% since Sept. 25, fueled a rally among privacy coins on Oct. 2.… read more.   Editor's comment: It's great to see the market seemingly reprice the importance of privacy.   Kalshi and Polymarket See US Government Shutdown as a Done Deal Users of the largest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, consider the U.S. government shutdown… read more.   Editor's comment: The U.S. government provides yet another great use case for prediction markets! Aster, Hyperliquid, and More: Nearly $1 Trillion in Perp DEX Trades Recorded in Just 30 Days With the perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) wars blazing hotter than a meme coin rally, defillama.com… read more.   Editor's comment: The crucial question is what percentage of the trade volume is organic, i.e., not people point farming.   Lagarde vs. the Dollar: ECB Push to Ban US Issued Stablecoins Gains Traction The European Systemic Risk Board has recommended a ban on multi-issuance stablecoins… read more. Editor's comment: The Bank of England had a proposal to put a cap on stablecoins. Then Iran. Now the ECB. These countries' reactions are predictable, but will they follow through with actual policy, and what will the U.S.'s reaction be? Read more news   @2025  Saint Bitts, LLC 858 Zenway Blvd, P.O. Box 1830, Frigate Bay, Saint Kitts and Nevis  This email was sent to To unsubscribe or modify your subscriptions, please click here. Have feedback for us? Send it here.