👀 Insider bet? 10 fresh wallets wager on Iran ceasefire

Crypto bounces on Iran ceasefire bets — but a $25M stablecoin exploit and gold's worst week since 1983 remind us the risks aren't gone. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Monday, March 23, 2026   The Iran war is now four weeks old and remains the dominant force weighing on markets — but some participants are betting it ends soon. Onchain data shows 10 freshly created wallets placed $160,000 on a ceasefire before March is out, eyeing a potential $1 million payout. The wallets' suspicious timing has raised eyebrows, but the trade captures something real: if the war ends, crypto could see a sharp relief bounce. For now, valuations remain under pressure, even as BTC pushes higher this morning on the ceasefire speculation. Read today's full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h Signal BTC $70,817 +3.82% Bouncing ETH $2,174 +5.05% Leading SOL $90.53 +4.25% Recovery XRP $1.43 +2.55% Lagging Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Polymarket bettors wager $160K on an Iran ceasefire. The wallets look suspicious. Ten wallets with no prior transaction history sprang up simultaneously over the weekend, placing a combined $160,000 on an Iran ceasefire by month-end — a bet that could pay out over $1 million. The coordinated timing has raised insider-trading suspicions. Whether or not the wagers reflect real intelligence, they reflect a market truth: gold just posted its worst weekly drop since 1983, and a peace deal remains the single most powerful near-term catalyst for a risk-asset recovery. Read more → Security   Story 2 of 3 Resolv stablecoin crashes 70% after attacker mints $80M in unbacked tokens Over the weekend an attacker exploited a compromised private key in Resolv's USR stablecoin, minting roughly 80 million unbacked tokens with just $100,000 in collateral and extracting about $25 million in ETH. USR, designed to hold a $1 peg, crashed to $0.025 before a partial recovery to around $0.27. With $95 million in assets against $173 million in liabilities, the protocol is functionally insolvent. Resolv has paused all functions and is working with law enforcement to recover funds. Multiple connected DeFi protocols — including Morpho, Fluid, and Euler — moved swiftly to disable USR as collateral to contain contagion. Read more → Macro   Story 3 of 3 Gold erases all 2026 gains as Iran war sends metals into freefall Gold plunged as much as 8.8% last week to just below $4,100 an ounce, its worst weekly performance since 1983, wiping out all its gains for the year. The metal has shed more than 20% since the Iran war began. The selloff reflects broad deleveraging across traditional safe havens as the conflict drives energy inflation and forces institutional portfolio rebalancing. Bitcoin, by contrast, has held above $70,000 throughout — a relative performance that is drawing renewed attention from macro observers watching the BTC-to-gold ratio. Read more → A message from Grayscale Introducing Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF (Ticker: GAVA), offering exposure to AVAX and potential staking rewards. Launching with a 0% management fee*, GAVA reflects our conviction in Avalanche as a highly customizable blockchain with real-world use cases across gaming, finance, and enterprise. 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