The rate signal bitcoin bulls aren't looking at closely

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Bitcoin is holding near $66,000, but the most important number today isn’t BTC’s price — it’s what that price looks like adjusted for the cost of capital. When you divide BTC by the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the ratio peaked in 2021 and has never recovered, even when bitcoin set a nominal all-time high above $126,000 last year. Either rates collapse, or nominal prices fall to realign. The latter looks more likely with oil topping $85 — Secretary of State Rubio said Iran is “not serious” about peace talks after the 11th consecutive day of U.S. strikes — and the Clarity Act stalling again as Senate Democrats reject the ethics deal. Tonight: Alphabet earnings. Bitcoin has tracked the AI trade all month. The answer could define the week.

Read today’s full report →

Market snapshot

As of 8am EST

Asset

Price

24h

BTC

$65,900

−0.45%

ETH

$1,917

+0.30%

SOL

$76.80

−0.90%

XRP

$1.12

−0.60%

Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data.

A message from Grayscale

Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (ticker: HYPG) is the lowest-fee HYPE fund in the U.S.¹ Hyperliquid is emerging as critical infrastructure for onchain markets — a high-performance blockchain that processed nearly $3 trillion in derivatives volume and generated ~$800 million in revenue in 2025, with no venture capital backing.²

Lowest management fee in its category (0.29%)
Over $100 million in AUM³
Potential staking rewards — HYPG seeks to stake 70%+ of its assets; HYPE staking rewards averaged ~2.2% last year.⁴

HYPG, an exchange traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“40 Act”), and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. HYPG is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. HYPG is not suitable for an investor who cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in HYPG is not a direct investment in HYPE.

Learn more

¹ Lowest-fee HYPE fund in the U.S. based on management fee of 0.29%. Brokerage fees and other expenses may apply.

² Crypto Briefing, December 26, 2025.

³ Bloomberg L.P. as of 6/X/26. Subject to change.

⁴ Stakingrewards.com. Historical daily average measured from 5/1/25 to 04/21/26. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This information must be preceded or accompanied by a Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF prospectus, which may be obtained by clicking here. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any security in particular. Potential staking rewards are earned by the Fund. Staking rewards are not guaranteed and should not be considered an indication of Fund performance. The Fund’s ability to engage in staking is conditional and may be modified. Staking requires that the Fund lock up HYPE for the period of time required by the staking protocol, meaning the Fund cannot sell or transfer the staked HYPE, thereby making it illiquid for the period it is being staked. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund. © 2026 Grayscale.

CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.

L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.

What matters today

Markets

Story 1 of 3

Here’s why bitcoin bulls should take a closer look at interest rates.

As bitcoin regains its footing after a bounce from $58,000 to $66,000, some observers are calling the move the start of a decisive bull run targeting prices well beyond last year’s $126,000 peak. But a look at bitcoin’s price adjusted for the cost of capital — specifically, dividing BTC’s price by the U.S. 10-year yield — tells a more measured story. Both the BTC/US10Y and Nasdaq/US10Y ratios have failed to eclipse their 2020–2021 peaks, even as their dollar-denominated prices set new record highs over the past year. The conclusion: when adjusted for the cost of capital, the true macro tops for bitcoin and the broader tech sector likely occurred in 2020–21, not in 2025. This divergence between nominal prices and yield-adjusted valuations can resolve in one of two ways. Either interest rates collapse — shrinking the denominator and propelling these ratios toward a fresh breakout — or nominal prices fall to realign with the structural weakness revealed by the ratios. The latter appears more likely for two reasons. First, Fed officials have remained decidedly hawkish, with some floating rate increases. Second, oil is now outperforming even the most aggressive risk assets. Bitcoin’s bounce has been respectable, yet its ratio relative to WTI crude oil futures has declined — a signal that energy is leading, not following, and that a new wave of cost-push inflation may be loading. Clarity Act prospects darkened further Tuesday: Democrats are said to be rejecting the ethics provision even after Trump agreed to it, meaning the Senate vote before August recess remains uncertain. Movement Labs, the blockchain startup behind last year’s token scandal, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Tuesday with fewer than 1,000 creditors and more than $1 million in liabilities.

Markets

Story 2 of 3

Bitcoin under $66,000 as traders await Alphabet earnings to gauge the AI trade.

Bitcoin held near $65,900 on Wednesday — just below the one-month high touched Tuesday — as a two-day chip stock rebound stalled ahead of the evening’s most consequential data point: Alphabet’s earnings. The Google parent said last quarter it would more than double capital spending to as much as $190 billion this year. Investors want evidence that spending is generating returns, and Wednesday’s report arrives just as chipmakers have been whipsawed by fears that the pace of AI investment cannot hold. Bitcoin has moved with the AI trade for weeks — up when the chip complex is strong, down when it wobbles — because the same risk appetite drives both and because bitcoin miners have rebuilt into AI data-center operators. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8% in the Asia session. Ether held near $1,917, up 2% on the week, while HYPE lagged at down 2% over seven days. Separately, oil topped $85 after Secretary of State Rubio said Iran is “not serious” about peace talks following the 11th consecutive day of U.S. military strikes. Brent crude futures rose 4%. Higher oil revives the inflation narrative that Bitcoin’s July recovery had briefly put to rest. The Fed meets in six days. Alphabet’s numbers after the bell Wednesday will set the tone heading into the weekend.

Finance

Story 3 of 3

Midnight token rebounds 19% after Wanchain bridge hack — Hoskinson calls for ZK revamp.

Midnight’s NIGHT token staged a sharp recovery after crashing to an all-time low following a bridge exploit earlier this week. NIGHT fell roughly 43% after 290 million tokens were stolen and dumped through a legacy Wanchain bridge on the Binance-Cardano corridor. The token then bounced nearly 19% in 24 hours, trading around $0.022. Charles Hoskinson, the Cardano founder whose Input Output built Midnight, used the incident to make a broader case for rethinking crypto security. He called it a “case of the Mondays” in an interview with CoinDesk while acknowledging its seriousness. “All software is under this enormous assault,” he said, pointing to a surge in Linux kernel vulnerabilities he attributed to AI-powered exploit discovery — arguing that even highly secure systems are statistically vulnerable at sufficient exposure. Hoskinson said zero-knowledge systems like Midnight are designed to eliminate the trust dependency that makes bridges dangerous, replacing bridge operators and multisig setups with cryptographic proofs that require no counterparty. Bridge hacks have been one of crypto’s most costly attack vectors for years — the Ronin, Wormhole and Nomad attacks collectively lost over $1.5 billion. NIGHT’s bounce is notable because it came without any protocol fix or compensation announcement, driven purely by buyers concluding the exploit was a bridge-layer failure rather than a Midnight-layer failure. The Balance stablecoin was less fortunate: a separate exploit Tuesday drained $912,000 from its bitcoin vaults through a pricing flaw, sending the algorithmic peg token down 99% from roughly $3.5 million in nominal value to near zero.